동아일보(국제) : 2003/01/03 18:06
[美, 경기부양책 내주 발표]세금깎아 소비-투자 유인
《미국 정부가 당장 재정적자가 늘어날 것이란 우려를 접고 경기부양책을 꺼내들었다. 아직 구체적인 내용은 공개되지 않았지만 개인소비 및 기업활력을 부추겨 성장률을 끌어올리려는 ‘공화당식 해법’이 될 것은 분명하다. 지난해 12월 경기부양에 미온적이었던 폴 오닐 재무장관이 경질될 때부터 진작책 마련이 임박했다는 관측이 지배적이었다. ‘부자만을 위한 감세’라는 민주당의 비판도 당장 세금을 덜 내게 되는 유권자들에게 먹혀들지 않을 터이고 금리도 바닥권(1.25%)까지 떨어져 연방준비제도이사회(FRB)의 통화정책 수단이 마땅치 않다는 점도 고려한 것으로 보인다.》
▽감세정책 내용=2001년 5월 의회가 통과시킨 조지 W 부시 대통령의 첫 감세법안은 2001년 1월부터 10년간 한시적으로 1조3500억달러의 세금을 깎아주는 것이 골자. 이미 낸 세금은 일부 돌려주고 세율도 지난해 7월을 시작으로 2004년과 2006년 등 세 차례 단계적으로 내린다.
내주 공개될 감세안은 이 일정을 더욱 당기거나 항구적인 것으로 바꾸고 여기에 더해 주식배당금에 붙는 세금을 줄이는 한편 투자자와 기업에 대한 소득 공제혜택을 늘리는 방안이 포함될 전망. 다만 “부유층에 혜택을 준다”는 비난을 의식해 연소득 31만1950달러 이상의 고소득층에 적용하는 소득세율 38.6%는 내리지 않을 것이란 관측도 있다.
▽감세정책 성공하려면=이러한 감세 조치는 세금을 내지 않아 여윳돈이 많아진 소비자와 기업이 각각 소비와 투자를 늘리고 이것이 성장률을 끌어올려 소득을 높이는 ‘선순환’ 궤도에 진입해야 성공할 수 있다. 이 고리가 작동하지 않는다면 이미 2002회계연도(2001년 10월∼2002년 9월)에 5년 만의 적자(1590억달러)를 낸 정부 살림은 더욱 곤궁해진다. 영국 파이낸셜 타임스 등 외신은 최근 미국 내에서 부쩍 확산된 디플레 심리에 주목하고 있다. 앞으로 10년간 인플레이션 기대치에 따라 움직이는 미 재무부 장기채권의 이자율이 1.5%까지 떨어지는 등 미 소비자들의 만성적인 인플레 심리가 디플레에 대한 우려로 바뀔 가능성이 높아졌다는 것.
크리스마스 직전 앨런 그린스펀 FRB 의장은 “최근 상황은 전 세계적으로 각국 정부가 디플레이션에 관심을 기울일 만했다”며 디플레 위협을 공식 인정하기도 했다. 디플레 심리가 확산될수록 소비를 줄이게 돼 감세정책의 효과는 반감된다.
▽부시의 재선 승부수=조지 부시 전 대통령은 1991년 걸프전에서 승리했지만 재선에선 실패했다. 경제를 살리지 못한 때문이었다.
아버지의 실패를 잘 알고 있는 부시 대통령은 2일(현지시간) 미국 텍사스의 크로퍼드 목장에서 “더 이상 미룰 수 없다”며 경기부양책 발표를 내주로 예고했다. 대이라크전쟁의 흥분이 가라앉을 2004년의 재선가도를 밝힐 승부수로 경제회복을 선택한 셈.
그러나 미국경제가 보여주는 경제지표는 매우 혼란스럽다. 전미공급관리협회(ISM)가 최근 발표한 제조업지수는 폭등세를 보였지만 실업률은 11월 6%까지 치솟았고 실업수당 신청자도 늘어나는 등 불확실성이 여전하다.
박래정기자 ecopark@donga.com
박혜윤기자 parkhyey@donga.com
-------------------------------------
워싱턴 포스트지 : 2003. 1. 2
President to seek dividend tax cut
Economic stimulus plan’s 10-year cost put at $300 billion
CRAWFORD, Texas, Jan. 2 — President Bush plans to announce an economic package Tuesday that will emphasize cuts in the tax on stock dividends while including tax breaks for personal income and capital investments, administration officials said today.
(부시 대통령은 다음주 화요일에 경기부양책을 발표할 계획이다. 개인 소득 및 자본 투자에 대한 세금의 대폭적인 감면을 포함한 주식배당금 세금의 감면을 강조할 것이라고 행정부 관리가 오늘 말했다.)
IN A SPEECH before the Economic Club of Chicago, Bush plans to propose excluding a large chunk of individuals’ dividend income from taxation, the officials said. That is the bulk of an economic stimulus package expected to total about $300 billion over 10 years.
The plan is also expected to include provisions allowing businesses to take deductions on their equipment purchases more quickly, and it will include some relatively small acceleration of income tax cuts enacted in 2001 and scheduled for 2004. Bush will also include an extension of federal unemployment benefits, although the White House has expressed no interest in cutting payroll taxes.
Bush has rejected advice from some officials that he exclude the wealthiest Americans from his proposal to accelerate the tax rate cuts scheduled to take place under the $1.3 trillion, 10-year package passed last year, a senior administration official said. Some aides, concerned that Bush would be vulnerable to Democrats’ charges that he is helping the wealthy, had urged him to propose a cancellation in a rate cut scheduled for the top income bracket.
“If you pay taxes, you’re due tax relief, and the time that it’s needed most is now, as opposed to later,” the official said. “The president is concerned about helping those who are shouldering the burden of this recovery.”
Bush preemptively rebutted the Democratic accusations during a tour of his ranch this morning. “I understand the politics of economic stimulus — that some would like to turn this into class warfare,” he said. “That’s not how I think. I think about the overall economy and how best to help those folks who are looking for work.”
Still, people familiar with the deliberations said the White House was de-emphasizing accelerated rate cuts, once the centerpiece of the plan. They said the administration has decided to put its strongest push behind the dividend tax cut and is prepared to sacrifice the accelerated rate cuts if necessary.
“The dividend thing is a must,” said a Republican source who has been consulted by Bush aides, but the accelerated rate cuts will “most likely” be dropped.
Grover Norquist, an anti-tax activist, said it is “very conceivable” that acceleration of the rate cuts would be dropped or sharply reduced.
Administration officials have drawn up plans to exclude 50 percent of dividend income from taxation, according to a person involved in the process; a senior Bush aide, however, said the ultimate figure would be different.
The 50 percent tax exclusion for dividends would cost between $142 billion and $248 billion over 10 years, according to the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. Accelerating by a year the 2001 tax cuts scheduled to take effect in fiscal 2004 would cost $17.1 billion. Accelerating by three years the tax cuts scheduled for 2006, the likeliest element to be dropped, would cost $87.3 billion.
Democrats say that the emerging plan appears to favor higher-income taxpayers at the expense of the middle class, and say they view the economy as Bush’s biggest weakness as he gears up for his reelection campaign.
The president’s announcement on Tuesday, when Congress convenes, is apt to touch off a political skirmish that could last well into the year. Democrats say that the emerging plan appears to favor higher-income taxpayers at the expense of the middle class, and say they view the economy as Bush’s biggest weakness as he gears up for his reelection campaign.
Democrats have been arguing for a package that includes funds for the states and a break in payroll taxes for lower-income workers, but a senior administration official said Bush decided that could undermine Social Security.
Administration officials said that eliminating the taxation on some dividends would help restore investor confidence and encourage investments in profitable companies. Officials said senior citizens, many on fixed incomes, would receive about half of the benefits from such an exclusion.
But even some Republicans raised questions about whether reducing dividend taxation would stimulate the economy. Kevin Hassett of the American Enterprise Institute said he favored a cut in dividend taxes, but he said that’s a long-term policy and “not a stimulus.”
Bush, speaking the same day the Labor Department reported that the number of newly laid-off Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits rose by 13,000 last week to 403,000, described the package in terms of job creation.
“I’m worried about those who are unemployed,” he said. “I am concerned about those who are looking for work but can’t find work.” Bush’s emphasis on employment as a selling point for the package reflects the input of GOP lawmakers concerned the party will be seen as favoring the rich.
Democratic strategists said they have as little as a month to score points against Bush before the possible beginning of hostilities with Iraq, and plan to take advantage of that window to call attention to what they consider his inadequate attention to the economy.
멦he key to beating George Bush is to build a case that on issue after issue he has represented the culture he grew up in — wealthy, elite insiders.?
— HOUSE DEMOCRATIC LEADERSHIP AIDE
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) said Bush’s plan sounds “like more of the same strategy, which helped get our country into fiscal trouble to begin with.”
House Democrats hope to release a plan Monday that would focus on lower-income taxpayers and the middle class. Aides to Democratic lawmakers said a major forum for their argument will be the Senate confirmation hearings later this month for Bush’s nominee for Treasury secretary, CSX Corp. Chairman John W. Snow.
“The key to beating George Bush is to build a case that on issue after issue he has represented the culture he grew up in — wealthy, elite insiders,” a House Democratic leadership aide said.
Many forecasters have predicted rocky days for the economy, and have said they see no engine for a sustained recovery. Bush acknowledged uncertainty, but said the country is resilient and that his new policies will be designed to build on that.
“This economy is pretty darn strong, given the fact that we have been through a recession and a terrorist attack, a breach of corporate confidence because of some malfeasance,” he said. “And yet the economy still grows.”
Milbank reported from Washington.
© 2003 The Washington Post Company
밑에 부분은 너무 길어서 생략 --;;;
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"진정 새로운 정치, 네사라(NESARA), 사회-문화 변형이 지금 실현되기를!"
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NESARA YES!
* End Federal Income Taxes (연방 소득세 종식)
* Forgive Mortgage Debt (저당 빚 면제)
* Back Your Dollars With Gold (금으로 달러화 뒷받침)
* Restore Common Law (관습법 복원)
* Restore Your Rights & Privacy (권리와 사생활 회복)
* YES to Peace / NO to Any War (평화에는 찬성/ 전쟁에는 반대)
* YES to TRUTH / NO to ALL Lies (진실에는 찬성/ 모든 거짓에는 반대)
** Forgives Credit Card & Mortgage Debt (카드/저당 빚 면제)
* Creates Gold-backed Treasury Bank System (금으로 뒷받침한 재정부 은행 시스템 창출)
[美, 경기부양책 내주 발표]세금깎아 소비-투자 유인
《미국 정부가 당장 재정적자가 늘어날 것이란 우려를 접고 경기부양책을 꺼내들었다. 아직 구체적인 내용은 공개되지 않았지만 개인소비 및 기업활력을 부추겨 성장률을 끌어올리려는 ‘공화당식 해법’이 될 것은 분명하다. 지난해 12월 경기부양에 미온적이었던 폴 오닐 재무장관이 경질될 때부터 진작책 마련이 임박했다는 관측이 지배적이었다. ‘부자만을 위한 감세’라는 민주당의 비판도 당장 세금을 덜 내게 되는 유권자들에게 먹혀들지 않을 터이고 금리도 바닥권(1.25%)까지 떨어져 연방준비제도이사회(FRB)의 통화정책 수단이 마땅치 않다는 점도 고려한 것으로 보인다.》
▽감세정책 내용=2001년 5월 의회가 통과시킨 조지 W 부시 대통령의 첫 감세법안은 2001년 1월부터 10년간 한시적으로 1조3500억달러의 세금을 깎아주는 것이 골자. 이미 낸 세금은 일부 돌려주고 세율도 지난해 7월을 시작으로 2004년과 2006년 등 세 차례 단계적으로 내린다.
내주 공개될 감세안은 이 일정을 더욱 당기거나 항구적인 것으로 바꾸고 여기에 더해 주식배당금에 붙는 세금을 줄이는 한편 투자자와 기업에 대한 소득 공제혜택을 늘리는 방안이 포함될 전망. 다만 “부유층에 혜택을 준다”는 비난을 의식해 연소득 31만1950달러 이상의 고소득층에 적용하는 소득세율 38.6%는 내리지 않을 것이란 관측도 있다.
▽감세정책 성공하려면=이러한 감세 조치는 세금을 내지 않아 여윳돈이 많아진 소비자와 기업이 각각 소비와 투자를 늘리고 이것이 성장률을 끌어올려 소득을 높이는 ‘선순환’ 궤도에 진입해야 성공할 수 있다. 이 고리가 작동하지 않는다면 이미 2002회계연도(2001년 10월∼2002년 9월)에 5년 만의 적자(1590억달러)를 낸 정부 살림은 더욱 곤궁해진다. 영국 파이낸셜 타임스 등 외신은 최근 미국 내에서 부쩍 확산된 디플레 심리에 주목하고 있다. 앞으로 10년간 인플레이션 기대치에 따라 움직이는 미 재무부 장기채권의 이자율이 1.5%까지 떨어지는 등 미 소비자들의 만성적인 인플레 심리가 디플레에 대한 우려로 바뀔 가능성이 높아졌다는 것.
크리스마스 직전 앨런 그린스펀 FRB 의장은 “최근 상황은 전 세계적으로 각국 정부가 디플레이션에 관심을 기울일 만했다”며 디플레 위협을 공식 인정하기도 했다. 디플레 심리가 확산될수록 소비를 줄이게 돼 감세정책의 효과는 반감된다.
▽부시의 재선 승부수=조지 부시 전 대통령은 1991년 걸프전에서 승리했지만 재선에선 실패했다. 경제를 살리지 못한 때문이었다.
아버지의 실패를 잘 알고 있는 부시 대통령은 2일(현지시간) 미국 텍사스의 크로퍼드 목장에서 “더 이상 미룰 수 없다”며 경기부양책 발표를 내주로 예고했다. 대이라크전쟁의 흥분이 가라앉을 2004년의 재선가도를 밝힐 승부수로 경제회복을 선택한 셈.
그러나 미국경제가 보여주는 경제지표는 매우 혼란스럽다. 전미공급관리협회(ISM)가 최근 발표한 제조업지수는 폭등세를 보였지만 실업률은 11월 6%까지 치솟았고 실업수당 신청자도 늘어나는 등 불확실성이 여전하다.
박래정기자 ecopark@donga.com
박혜윤기자 parkhyey@donga.com
-------------------------------------
워싱턴 포스트지 : 2003. 1. 2
President to seek dividend tax cut
Economic stimulus plan’s 10-year cost put at $300 billion
CRAWFORD, Texas, Jan. 2 — President Bush plans to announce an economic package Tuesday that will emphasize cuts in the tax on stock dividends while including tax breaks for personal income and capital investments, administration officials said today.
(부시 대통령은 다음주 화요일에 경기부양책을 발표할 계획이다. 개인 소득 및 자본 투자에 대한 세금의 대폭적인 감면을 포함한 주식배당금 세금의 감면을 강조할 것이라고 행정부 관리가 오늘 말했다.)
IN A SPEECH before the Economic Club of Chicago, Bush plans to propose excluding a large chunk of individuals’ dividend income from taxation, the officials said. That is the bulk of an economic stimulus package expected to total about $300 billion over 10 years.
The plan is also expected to include provisions allowing businesses to take deductions on their equipment purchases more quickly, and it will include some relatively small acceleration of income tax cuts enacted in 2001 and scheduled for 2004. Bush will also include an extension of federal unemployment benefits, although the White House has expressed no interest in cutting payroll taxes.
Bush has rejected advice from some officials that he exclude the wealthiest Americans from his proposal to accelerate the tax rate cuts scheduled to take place under the $1.3 trillion, 10-year package passed last year, a senior administration official said. Some aides, concerned that Bush would be vulnerable to Democrats’ charges that he is helping the wealthy, had urged him to propose a cancellation in a rate cut scheduled for the top income bracket.
“If you pay taxes, you’re due tax relief, and the time that it’s needed most is now, as opposed to later,” the official said. “The president is concerned about helping those who are shouldering the burden of this recovery.”
Bush preemptively rebutted the Democratic accusations during a tour of his ranch this morning. “I understand the politics of economic stimulus — that some would like to turn this into class warfare,” he said. “That’s not how I think. I think about the overall economy and how best to help those folks who are looking for work.”
Still, people familiar with the deliberations said the White House was de-emphasizing accelerated rate cuts, once the centerpiece of the plan. They said the administration has decided to put its strongest push behind the dividend tax cut and is prepared to sacrifice the accelerated rate cuts if necessary.
“The dividend thing is a must,” said a Republican source who has been consulted by Bush aides, but the accelerated rate cuts will “most likely” be dropped.
Grover Norquist, an anti-tax activist, said it is “very conceivable” that acceleration of the rate cuts would be dropped or sharply reduced.
Administration officials have drawn up plans to exclude 50 percent of dividend income from taxation, according to a person involved in the process; a senior Bush aide, however, said the ultimate figure would be different.
The 50 percent tax exclusion for dividends would cost between $142 billion and $248 billion over 10 years, according to the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. Accelerating by a year the 2001 tax cuts scheduled to take effect in fiscal 2004 would cost $17.1 billion. Accelerating by three years the tax cuts scheduled for 2006, the likeliest element to be dropped, would cost $87.3 billion.
Democrats say that the emerging plan appears to favor higher-income taxpayers at the expense of the middle class, and say they view the economy as Bush’s biggest weakness as he gears up for his reelection campaign.
The president’s announcement on Tuesday, when Congress convenes, is apt to touch off a political skirmish that could last well into the year. Democrats say that the emerging plan appears to favor higher-income taxpayers at the expense of the middle class, and say they view the economy as Bush’s biggest weakness as he gears up for his reelection campaign.
Democrats have been arguing for a package that includes funds for the states and a break in payroll taxes for lower-income workers, but a senior administration official said Bush decided that could undermine Social Security.
Administration officials said that eliminating the taxation on some dividends would help restore investor confidence and encourage investments in profitable companies. Officials said senior citizens, many on fixed incomes, would receive about half of the benefits from such an exclusion.
But even some Republicans raised questions about whether reducing dividend taxation would stimulate the economy. Kevin Hassett of the American Enterprise Institute said he favored a cut in dividend taxes, but he said that’s a long-term policy and “not a stimulus.”
Bush, speaking the same day the Labor Department reported that the number of newly laid-off Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits rose by 13,000 last week to 403,000, described the package in terms of job creation.
“I’m worried about those who are unemployed,” he said. “I am concerned about those who are looking for work but can’t find work.” Bush’s emphasis on employment as a selling point for the package reflects the input of GOP lawmakers concerned the party will be seen as favoring the rich.
Democratic strategists said they have as little as a month to score points against Bush before the possible beginning of hostilities with Iraq, and plan to take advantage of that window to call attention to what they consider his inadequate attention to the economy.
멦he key to beating George Bush is to build a case that on issue after issue he has represented the culture he grew up in — wealthy, elite insiders.?
— HOUSE DEMOCRATIC LEADERSHIP AIDE
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) said Bush’s plan sounds “like more of the same strategy, which helped get our country into fiscal trouble to begin with.”
House Democrats hope to release a plan Monday that would focus on lower-income taxpayers and the middle class. Aides to Democratic lawmakers said a major forum for their argument will be the Senate confirmation hearings later this month for Bush’s nominee for Treasury secretary, CSX Corp. Chairman John W. Snow.
“The key to beating George Bush is to build a case that on issue after issue he has represented the culture he grew up in — wealthy, elite insiders,” a House Democratic leadership aide said.
Many forecasters have predicted rocky days for the economy, and have said they see no engine for a sustained recovery. Bush acknowledged uncertainty, but said the country is resilient and that his new policies will be designed to build on that.
“This economy is pretty darn strong, given the fact that we have been through a recession and a terrorist attack, a breach of corporate confidence because of some malfeasance,” he said. “And yet the economy still grows.”
Milbank reported from Washington.
© 2003 The Washington Post Company
밑에 부분은 너무 길어서 생략 --;;;
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"진정 새로운 정치, 네사라(NESARA), 사회-문화 변형이 지금 실현되기를!"
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NESARA YES!
* End Federal Income Taxes (연방 소득세 종식)
* Forgive Mortgage Debt (저당 빚 면제)
* Back Your Dollars With Gold (금으로 달러화 뒷받침)
* Restore Common Law (관습법 복원)
* Restore Your Rights & Privacy (권리와 사생활 회복)
* YES to Peace / NO to Any War (평화에는 찬성/ 전쟁에는 반대)
* YES to TRUTH / NO to ALL Lies (진실에는 찬성/ 모든 거짓에는 반대)
** Forgives Credit Card & Mortgage Debt (카드/저당 빚 면제)
* Creates Gold-backed Treasury Bank System (금으로 뒷받침한 재정부 은행 시스템 창출)